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第58节:美国经济脉络日渐清晰

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美国经济脉络日渐清晰

幸运的是,美国经济走势与我们的预测相当吻合。龙腾小说网ltxsba.com

2006年10月27日,美国公布了第三季度的GDP增长率的数据———1.6%,2006年一季度是5.6%,二季度是2.6%。这使得本报金融研究中心2006年十大预言中最核心的一项成为现实,即美国进行经济调整。我们去年底的措辞是“美国在经历了18年的‘格林斯潘繁荣周期’之后,将迎来经济调整是确定的,它可能在几个月内、一年内,应该不会超过两年内到来”。

2006年6月9日,笔者在《红灯转黄:世界金融危机风险降级》一文中,进一步明确了调整时间,“在美国最近改变内政外交政策后,以猛烈的危机方式调整的可能性下降。现在,美国经济的可控性主动调整即将开始了。”

美国经济调整的准确预测为我们相关的国际项成功奠定了基础,比如美国股票、黄金、石油价格。

对于美国股市,我们预计其“会温和地盘整或小幅上涨,直到美国经济调整时下跌,然而不至于出现太大跌幅”。自2006年年初开盘到三季度GDP数据公布以前,美国标准普尔500指数上涨了9.45%,数据公布后一周下跌1.79%后反弹。

2005年底,当黄金价格每盎司517美元之时,我们给出的预测是:“金价2006年达到600美元的概率是100%,达到800美元的概率是50%。”这几乎是当时全球金融研究机构关于黄金价格的最大胆的预测。而2006年4月11日,金价突破600美元,5月16日,最高达到730美元。我们在4月12日就及时评论———“黄金价格冲上600美元绝不是一个好的信号。此时此刻,我们非常希望本报对2006年更高黄金价格的其他预测是错误的,甚至永远不会发生。”希望全世界有识之士共同阻止因伊朗核冲突引发的中东石油危机,避免新一轮大的国际政治和经济动荡。后来的黄金价格回落也在我们的意料之中。

“石油价格有机会再创新高,但随着中国经济增长放缓和美国经济调整,美国乃至全球对石油的需求都会降低,石油价格将会下挫。”这一基本判断也已得到印证,2006年7月14日,国际石油价格盘中创出每桶77.95美元历史新高之后,截止2006年底,其已下挫21.7%。

此外,我们其他几个国际项,如欧元兑美元小幅上涨,日本经济复苏有望,人民币对美元继续小幅升值等三项,也被实践检验为基本正确。

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