第61节:洞穿金融风暴的纯净“眼”
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洞穿金融风暴的纯净“眼”
正因如此,我们对于中国与世界的经济预测,连续两年达到70%左右的成功率,不能仅仅以“侥幸”二字来解释。龙腾小说网ltxsba.com
我们勇于追求的底气从何而来?预测力是信息量、专业工具、价值立场、思维层次的多层面融会贯通的结晶。在信息的获取上,全球现在几乎同步;从全球金融市场跨国界、跨市场、跨产品的复杂资金内循环模型,到全球宏观经济的复杂工具箱,中国人都可以后发而直追。而最具有差异性的是价值立场与思维方式。
价值立场关键在于,研究者谁更加超脱,谁更能抛开个人或机构利益的“有色眼镜”,用“纯净”的心灵,像一只极其平和冷静的“风暴眼”那样洞察周遭疯狂旋转的金融市场。以社会公共价值为回归的主流财经传媒有着先天脱俗的优势。
多层次的思维认知指的是,小逻辑总是要服从大逻辑,研究者如何不断在一个更广阔的背景下,找到更宏大也更根本的内在逻辑。研究一个企业,必然追寻一个行业的兴衰变迁,进而必然要把握国家宏观经济脉搏和追寻全球的经济与金融的循环演绎;进而必须认知全球社会发展的历史性规律,最终回归到人性———政治家之心、金融家之心、实业家之心、知识分子之心、劳工之心。全球金融潮起潮落的最后本质,就是各色人等的利害之心相互影响和博弈的结果。
因此,研究的最后高下之分,在于视野和心境之别。如果把地球看成一个无边无际的世界,必然会深度迷失;如果把世界看成一个地球村,就有可能了解这个村庄的特性;从理论上说,你甚至可以将世界看作成一个掌上的水晶球……
这是我们的追求方向,不敢说现在我们走到了哪一步,但是一个内循环的金融世界在我们的眼前正日渐清晰。
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