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第68节:2005~2007三年度中国与世界十大经济预言(7)

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稳定因素:随着美元的不断贬值,美国的出口将会增加,国外进口将降低,会减少一定的贸易赤字。更多小说ltxsba.com2005年美国可能会继续升息,以吸引对美投资。此外,美国业已出台《本土投资法》,将美国企业利润回流的所得税率从35%降低到5.25%,会促使一部分美元回流。

在稳定因素中,美国企业利润回流只能起短暂作用,如果回国后投资回报率不高,它还会流走;美元的升息很容易被欧元的相应升息抵销掉。总体平衡后,美元仍然有着相当幅度的贬值空间。

不能完全排除美国军事开支大幅上涨的可能,如果美国本土发生较大规模的恐怖袭击,或者美国与伊朗发生较大规模武装冲突,美元将贬值20%以上。

4.国际原油平均价格低于2004年,但会大幅反复震荡

震荡幅度79%以内概率40%震荡幅度79%以上概率60%

从供需基本面来看,在2005年全球经济增长幅度将比2004年降低的趋势下,全球原油需求将下降,加上2004年各国追涨,增加了原油储备量,因此,2005年国际石油的需求将下降。供给方面,随着俄罗斯厘定尤科斯难题,委内瑞拉政局平稳,原油供应量会增加。总体平均价格将低于2004年。

但《第一财经日报》预测,2004年石油价格将大幅反复震荡(震荡幅度=(最高价-最低价)/最低价),有可能超过2004年的79%。其主要原因是中东的反美武装已经纷纷把袭击目标对准原油的生产和运输,目前已有从伊拉克扩大到中东其他地区的趋势。

美国是否会袭击伊朗的核设施将是2005年石油价格的最大悬念,与此相关的是,如果美国袭击,伊朗将作何反应,以及美国陆军会不会进入伊朗。我们的判断是,美国在2005年对伊朗核设施采取外科手术式袭击的概率超过50%,伊朗遇袭后会保持相对克制,但两伊边界的军事摩擦会发生。大规模的武装冲突不会发生。

5.全球经济增幅回落

降低概率100%提高概率0%

随着全球主要市场国家进入新一轮加息周期,各国都实行紧缩的货币政策,从而国内需求将大大缩小,因此,2005年全球经济增长幅度比低于2004年并无悬念。

6.中国通货紧缩的预期可能大、实际可能小

通货紧缩概率60%通货膨胀概率40%

2005年中国将继续巩固2004年的宏观调控成果,并将积极的财政货币政策调整为稳健的财政货币政策,将国债发行控制在2004年的水平内。

另一方面,鉴于中国物价指数在2004年冲高回落,粮价进一步回落,核心CPI仍未有起色,CPI明年可能会进一步回落。而且随着四大行上市资本充足率的要求,商业银行放贷相对谨慎。因此,若以2004年底的既定政策不变为判断标准,2005年通货紧缩的概率将大于通货膨胀,其比例为6∶4。但考虑到货币和执政当局的随机调整的能力,以及PPI等上游指数的压力,全年实际发生轻微通货紧缩的概率将小于轻微通货膨胀,其比例为4∶6。

7.中国全国居民商品房平均价格将小幅上升

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