第一百九十六章 猜忌与背叛
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说实话，其实陈登对于张绣集团的展前景评价的还算中肯，倘若纵观中华古往今来五千年，却是不难现，极少有自南方向北成就王霸之业的，除却朱明王朝创造了北伐驱元的壮举，绝大多数王朝一统都是自北向南完成的。龙腾小说ltxsba.com笔趣?阁??????ｗ?ｗ?ｗ?．?ｂ?ｉ?ｑ?ｕ?ｇ?ｅ?．?ｃ?ｎ?
这倒不是说南北方有着强弱上的区别，而是因为地理环境和人文环境等的问题，从北方往南征伐更容易完成。
从地理因素而言，北方的战争资源更多，且平阔通达的地形更有利于组织军队保证后勤。而南方多丘陵地形，群落之间多阻隔。虽然平原地形也不少，但是密集河流水网却也是造成了交通联系的不便。
从人文因素而言，北人的性格的特点是豪爽直接，且从来不乏好斗勇悍之辈。而南人中虽然也有不少勇烈之人，但其性格与北人相比难免显得畏畏缩缩瞻前顾后一点。君不见历代北朝南征，不论胜败，总是说打就敢打的。而南朝北伐，相当大的一部分却因为自己人问题胎死腹中，湮没了多少忠烈岳武穆。
所以摆事实讲道理，陈登的评价和总结还是相当具有眼光的。张绣眼下虽然有着天下第三诸侯的综合实力，甚至在袁曹决战之后还能成为当下天下“数一数二”的势力集团，但是其之后的展前景绝对是异常黯淡的。
别的不说，单说战兵的组成，张绣麾下赖以为根本的西凉军历经数战已经不足四万之数，绝对王牌西凉铁骑因为骑兵的损失和良马的匮乏，其规模却是已经缩编到了千人队，甚至还不是足额满员的！总之一句话，张绣军目前的军事实力虽然提升了很多，但是威慑力却是大幅下降。以淮南兵和人心尚为彻底归服的江东兵为主要构成的张绣军，今后很难与北人军队争雄中原。
而事实上，张绣不愿在袁曹争雄的当口攻略中原的原因其中就有陈登分析的这一条。虽然在淮南手下可用的兵马数量多达十五万，但是张绣这次却没有像当初以数万西凉悍卒征讨袁术一般的底气，所以还需再进一步的积攒钱粮招纳兵马训练士卒，厚积而薄才是张绣的可取之道。
同样，也是这个原因，使得刘备和陈登敢放开了小沛和谯郡任由张绣去战，就是掐中了张绣目前的骑兵实力不足以袭取许昌夺得天子这一点。
进取不足，陈登也不看好张绣能够“守成有余”。毕竟张绣出身西凉军，是马背上的汉子徒步的好手，但是绝不通湖舟江船之道，如此以来，尽管你张绣能取得长江以南的广阔土地，却也难以据江自守，到头来还是一场空。
最后不得不说的是，如果是按照一般情况而言，陈登所预想所言的这些是绝对成立的。但是既然有一般的存在，那就是特殊的情况存在。而张绣本人正是那一特殊的存在。
身为当代人的陈登仅以华夏三千年的史实就分析出来了南北相争不如东西相争的事实，而身为现代人的张绣可是纵览了中华五千年，自然比陈登更清楚以南伐北的难处。但是既然敢明知此路坎坷难行却依然毅然决然选择这条路，自然是有张绣自己的道理的。
而且另一个不得不提的自变因素是，素来目视甚高的陈元龙，这一次却也是低估了贾诩的智谋。不过也对，像贾诩这种谁都貌似看得懂却就是摸不透的人物，陈登将其低估才是最正常的，若是被看出来了那就没意思了。
“如此说来，张绣似乎并不是我大汉中兴之患！”沉思良久，刘备喃喃吐言道。
陈登大笑两声：“依照现在的情势，最终还是会成忧成患的，只是不是大忧大患而已。将军不必多心，还是按照一切定计的那样来，先自足山东福地，大业可期！”
自古以来，所谓山东指的是崤山以东，但是随着时代变迁，山东这个地域概念却是已经生了演变。就比如现在，刘备就知道陈登所说的并不是崤山以东，而是太行山、泰山以东的意思。
“那是自然，先前我军兵微将寡，尚不足以与曹贼为战。但是此番曹操去战袁绍，而吾又得子龙助阵，定然旗开得胜！”刘备微微抬起头，掷地有声道。
“皇叔有赵将军为冲阵利器，去战那泰山贼臧霸自然没有多大问题。不过希望皇叔切记袁曹相争的中原大局，适可为之！”陈登瞄了一眼旁边远远侍立着的赵云，禀手道：“三将军和张绣这边，交给元龙调度就好！”
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