第三十一章 走投无路的日本（4）
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井上成美用颤抖的声音读道：“……南洋局势危如累卵，逐岛争夺迫在眉睫，敌已不计较军舰、飞机损失，专以优势6军、航空兵力向我突击，进行消耗作战，若以瓜岛战事举例，敌损失后补充易，我损失后补充难，敌损失就近可从澳洲补充，我损失需从6ooo公里外本土运来，综合各方面因素，我之判断如下：
三个月内失守：瓜达卡纳尔岛
六个月内失守：所罗门群岛、阿留申群岛
一年到一年半内失守：新几内亚诸岛、马绍尔群岛、吉尔伯特群岛
三年内失守：马里亚纳群岛、加罗林群岛、爪哇与苏门达腊各岛（印度尼西亚中东部）、马来亚诸岛（主要指婆罗洲）”
如果让霍夫曼来看这份分析，就知道上述判断大体还是符合历史实际情况的，只是先后顺序会有点差异——因为美国在进攻中推行了蛙跳战术，而日本认为美国的反攻会是一层层推进的。更多小说ltxsba.com`
“这么说起来菲律宾、小笠原群岛还能守到三年后。”山本五十六笑道，“6军对海军信心还是很充足的嘛……比我想得还要乐观一点，我以为那时候敌人都要打上本土来了。”
而井上成美和下村定都快要哭出来了，“长官……”
“石原君的说法很明确，从瓜岛战役就可以看出岛屿作战中无制海权则地面无后勤与补给，作战必败，而无制空权则无制海权，全部问题的关键在于航空作战——可偏偏我们无论飞行员还是飞机都不是美国对手，经不空作战的持续消耗，所以类似于瓜岛这种远距离的航空作战决不能再继续了，必须收缩战线。`”多田骏说道，“根据他的想法与建议，东南海域我决定以拉包尔为中心画一个圈，半径按飞机飞一小时航程计算。也就是大约5oo-6oo公里，越这个距离的岛屿一律放弃……”
现场虽然没有地图，不过都是经验丰富的将领，用脑子大致一想就明白了。井上成美试探着问道：“6军的意思是放弃布干维尔岛以东的全部所罗门岛再加莱城、萨拉摩阿地区以南的新几内亚各岛？”
“差不多，6军打算固守以拉包尔为中心，布干维尔岛与莱城和萨拉摩阿地区为两翼的三角地带，其余岛屿全部放弃。”
“守多久？用多少兵力？”山本五十六沉吟片刻后问道。
“全面撤军完成后再坚持6-8个月，坚持等到联合舰队完成印度洋攻略后再行反攻。至于兵力……”多田骏盘点了一下，“原拟定成立第八方面军负责东南海域统一辖制第17、18军，主要6军兵力包括第2、2o、38、41、51五个师团、混成第38、39、4o、65四个旅团、南海第4守备队另外还有4个飞行师团。如果执行收缩计划的话，飞行师团数量不够，6军兵力倒有多余，可以抽调出来一些——打算再增加2个飞行师团并抽回2个6军师团。”
“第11航空舰队的主要兵力倒都在拉包尔为中心的几个岛上，是否可以给宇垣缠中将增援一些，也显得海军中枢对他调任职务的关心。舰队方面如果将来主力抽走，三川军一的第8舰队可以在补强舰艇实力后留在拉包尔附近与美军周旋——只是那样一来就丧失了进攻与反击能力，6军确信要这么做？”
“进攻？反击？”多田骏摇摇头。8小说`“我没想过，石原次长也不是这个策略，6军的想法很简单，一旦我们下定决心执行印度洋攻略，南洋各地区就是全面转入守势，东南方向的防御方针就是固守以拉包尔为核心的周边岛屿，利用各种方式给美军以杀伤，他们不是要和我们打消耗战么，我们就和他们拼人命——拉包尔经过多年经营，物资充足、地形有利。完全可以维持长期作战。我之所以抽调2个师团兵力回驻菲律宾，就是因为这两个师团是成立不久的治安师团，实力不强，消耗物资与老牌师团倒一样。完全是浪费。”
多田骏一边说一边用手指蘸水在桌子上画了起来：“你们看，拉包尔、布干维尔和新几内亚正好构成了一个边长5oo-6oo公里的三角形，在布干维尔岛上面我们准备部署1个师团和1个旅团的兵力，莱城和萨拉摩阿地区同样部署1个师团又1个旅团的兵力，拉包尔区域只要2个旅团加守备队就可以了。敌人在攻破布干维尔及莱城和萨拉摩阿地区之前不会直接向拉包尔进攻，否则他们会受到两翼夹击。一旦两翼经过持久作战后被美军击破，剩余兵力能够很方便地撤向拉包尔进行持久作战，拉包尔的兵力初期看上去薄弱，实际上在后期接受其他两处撤退的兵力后拥有相似的兵力密度。综上，6军打算在这个三角地带部署9-1o万兵力，再加上6oo-8oo架飞机。当然，这是石原次长和我个人商议的想法，还没形成作战计划下。”
下村定问道：“如果海军未来执行印度洋攻略要抽走航母和舰队主力，我们也不反对，只是能否将基地航空队兵力多派一些？”
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