第七十一章 变计
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金辽议和没有成功。辽国皇帝答铀金国的条件，册封金主为皇帝，但完颜阿骨打改变了想法，提出了更高的要求，他要上京，要兴中府。
辽国当然不会答应。不答应没关系，现在女真人掌控了辽东形势，你不答应，那就武力进攻。辽东义军为了生存，肯定要打南京道，有他们在前面冲锋陷阵，金人只要跟在后面捡便宜就行了。
辽国皇帝担心上京道有失，把耶律余睹派到了上京战场，中京战场则由萧干全权负责。
辽国宫帐对女真人出尔反尔一事极为愤怒。原先事女真人积极要求议和，但自锦州大战结束后，女真人的态度突然变了，拽起来了，拿议和当幌子拖延时间。
辽人其实很清楚女真人变卦地原因，很简单，辽东叛军打到榆关了，接下来他们就要打燕京。辽军为了守住燕京，势必以主力迎战，如此一来，上京道也罢，中京道也罢，都只能消极防御，无法对金国形成威胁。你不能威胁女真人，他还怕你什么？当然漫天要价了。
辽金议和失败，对义军来说，是个不好地消息，非常不好。
辽金议和成功，义军周旋于两边，还能极力维持一种平衡，以便从中渔利；辽金议和失败，两国出于对立状态，夹在中间的辽东义军随即成为双方博弈的筹码，不但自身非常握，也会被辽东形势所控制，稍有不慎就会被卷进血腥的漩涡。要想摆脱这个漩涡，唯一的办法就是冲出去，也就是南下打幽燕。
女真人非常聪明，他们审时度势，马上改变了策略，断然决定放弃议和，从而把辽东形势推向了更恶劣的境地，以迫使义军尽快南下。
很简单的事，辽金议和失败，辽军主力又被义军牵制在南京道和上京道，金军可以选择恰当时机攻打上京道，一旦他拿下了上京，从两个方向威胁中京道，他就不需要义军在中京道了，他会主动出击，把义军赶进幽燕。
这里有个问题，就是义军会不会受抚于辽，假如金军逼得太狠了，义军受抚或者和辽军联手，那金军这个决策就有问题。
从金人的决策里看得出来，他们断定义军不会受抚于辽。
女真人为什么会有这个判断？因为有宋金盟约。宋金结盟，联手攻辽，两国瓜分大辽疆土，做为以汉人为主体的辽东义军，最好地结局就是回归大宋，这也是辽东汉人祖祖辈辈地梦想。
如果义军受抚于辽，那么义军到底需要什么？他们在为什么而战？李虎现在手上有十万大军，但他没有地盘，这是他最为致命的地方，辽西走廊充其量只是个歇脚地地方，所以他的出路在哪？和辽人联手抗金，他能找到出路？显然不可能。从辽东整体形势上来推断，义军最好的出路就是打幽燕，回归大宋，舍此以外，都是死路一条。
既然义军不可能受抚于辽，也没有和辽国合作的前提，李虎无论如何都要南下，那金国还有必要议和吗？没有必要了，不议和，就是掌握主动，就能把辽人和义军同时逼得手忙脚乱。
女真人的策略成顾，李虎现在日夜思考的就是如何打幽燕。
打幽燕有两个条件，一是义军需要充足的财力，二是义军把几十万人养活，否则，义军没办法发动大规模的进攻。
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