第三十章 窝里反
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一部分人和李虎的想法完全相反，他们认为这是义军发展的最好机会。乘着女真人内忧外困，自顾不暇之际，果断出击。拿下东京u把汉王府建立起来，就此奠定汉王国的根基。
如今辽国内有廷争♀有宋金两国的夹击，短期内他们既要应对宋人地北伐，又要收复上京，两线作战，不可能和义军翻脸，而金人不但要和辽军、义军作战，还要平息内部叛乱，等于在三线作战，更是穷于应付。这种情况下，义军可以轻松占据东京，然后和女真人平分东北路，契丹人为了重振旗鼓，他们在未来一段时间内也要力保三分格局，继而给自己赢得喘息的时间。
综上所述，义军有充足的理由即刻发动东京大战，而攻打燕京的事，暂时可以放弃≡于辽东汉人来说，背靠大宋在幽燕立足，让他们有深陷樊笼之感，没有什么自信，相反，攻占东京，立足于东南一隅，在昔日渤海国的地盘上建立汉王国，在熟悉地土地上和熟悉的对手作战，他们有强烈的自信。
持有这种观点的人占据了大多数，他们期待李虎下令发动东京大战。
李虎断然否决。
他的想法是放弃东京大战，把主力全部调到平州路，准备打燕京，以配合宋军北伐。
此刻发动东京大战，有几个不确定因素。其一，烛隈水部的叛乱规模到底有多大？能持续多久？女真人的大联盟会不会因此而崩溃？烛隈水部的叛乱规模如果不大，持续时间很短，那对金国局势就没有什么影响。女真人的大联盟如果很稳固，这场叛乱就掀不起什么波澜，女真人依旧有足够实力地守住东京。
其二，契丹人的目标是什么？很显然，是上京，是夺回他们的根基之地，以便稳住契丹人心。假若辽军收复上京后，不打了，坐山观虎斗，准备渔翁得利，那我们最后必定是无功而返。以义军实力来说，这个时候无论如何不敢和女真人拼个鱼死网破，那是自取败亡之举。从辽国目前的境况来说，它的国库也无力承担几十万大军长期作战，更无力发动东征，所以辽军必将错过这个机会。
其三，北宋是否能够如期北伐？宋军北伐，辽军两线作战，他们不可能再帮助我们打东京，也不可能帮助我们在上京方向威胁黄龙府。辽东三分格局的基础是联辽遏金，如果契丹人无力相助，我们威胁女真人的倚仗也就没有了，义军即使夺下东京也未必守得住。
综上所述，一句话，义军实力不足，无法和金军相抗衡，若想建立三分格局，首先就要联辽遏金，打东京就要联手辽军，而大宋北伐和辽国国库又拖住了辽军，所以，在局势没有明朗之前，义军首要之务是确保自己的实力，也就是说，东京大战不能打。
双方各有各的理由，但归其一点，都是因为无法准确预测未来局势地发展，所以商量来商量去，决定再耐心观察一段时间。
这段时间非常难熬，李虎和帅府大员们彻夜不眠，前线各军将士也是严阵以待，准备随时发动攻击。九月二十，耶律大石再度来到锦州，催促李虎出兵。这次李虎有搪塞地理由了，女真人来了，说推迟东京大战，叫我们按兵不动≈在我如果强行攻击，等于暴露了真实意图，女真人肯定不上当。
耶律大石马上想到了中京战场。据萧德恭说，完颜阿骨打最近一段时间停止了攻击。难道金国内部出了什么事？旋即他又想到了从燕京传来的密报，说宋军最近在太原集结，好象有什么重大军事行动。这个消锨西夏人送来地，他们担心宋军北上征伐，特意请辽国注意，如果宋军攻打西夏，则请辽国予以援手。燕京方面考虑到辽东形势，又顾虑到宋金曾有联手攻辽的意图，所以督请萧德恭和耶律余睹，尽快结束战事，以防不测。
耶律大石越想越害怕。宋金如果联手攻辽，那么这次完颜阿骨打南下打中京就有可能是诱敌之计，以帮助宋军发动北伐。宋军北伐一旦开始，辽军两线作战，顾此失彼，更可怕的是，李虎雄踞幽燕之东，挥眈眈，如果他再乘机打燕京，那辽国极有可能连丢西京、中京和燕京，国祚旦夕败亡。
耶律大石不敢耽搁，匆忙告辞，把自己的推测急报萧德恭和耶律余睹。
两位统帅听说宋军在太原集结，本来就有不祥之感，这下看到大石的推测，联想到完颜阿骨打和李虎一系列非同寻常的举动，认定大辽有握，随即急奏皇帝。大辽一旦陷入宋金两国和义军的三面围攻当中，后果不堪设想。
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