第960章 幼稚
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请朱找朝臣说服尚书台发文注定行不通，但鱼不智也不是毫无收获，朱说了不少对时局的看法，混迹官场的老臣，对时局解读非常深刻敏锐。最新地址ltxsba.info
跟朱一席深谈，鱼不智才发现自己对大势的判断太过简单。
首先，他对凉州军处境认知不清。
凉州军占据司隶膏腴之地，然而形势不容乐观。
东面，关东诸侯彼此攻伐，暂时无力西向，但给凉州大佬们一千个胆，他们也不敢主动挑衅关东，还得屯扎重兵防备。
西面是凉州军故地，按理说该是凉州军根据地，可董卓率凉州军进京后马腾和韩遂坐大，凉州军势力大不如前，马腾还公然参加讨伐董卓战役。韩遂倒是没有跟风，且跟马腾表面上不怎么对付，时不时打上一架，不过两人是拜把子兄弟，韩遂明里暗里都在帮马腾，所以根据地也不让人省心。
北面是胡人自留地，董卓进京之前没少带凉州军胡人干仗，凉州军毕竟是虎狼之师，胜多负少，也意味着凉州军手上沾染了很多胡人鲜血，时刻得提防反噬。近来朱移师河套，虎踞上郡，离河南尹不过数百里距离，朱是汉室名将，军中威望极高，能打又能扛，以前受制于没有自己地盘难有作为，到河套后犹如龙归大海，凉州军北面的威胁持续增长中。
最后是南面，司隶南接荆益，荆州牧刘表和益州牧刘焉都是汉室宗亲，跟司隶挨这么近，却在席卷全国的讨伐董卓浪潮中按兵不动，动机难理解，却着实让凉州军少了很多压力。虽说仍有袁术占了南阳，孙坚从长沙北上，但都是地方诸侯行为，刘表和刘焉没掺和是不争的事实。若荆益全面倒戈，哪怕不直接参战，只是提供驻军据点和后勤支援，对凉州军都是灭顶之灾。
环顾四周，不难看出凉州军南面最安定。
短期形势不乐观，长期形势呢？
更不乐观！
关东群雄并起，正在进行内部淘汰赛，最终的胜出者必顺势进军司隶，勇烈强悍如董卓，面对不团结的关东联军都被迫迁都，等关东势力实现有效统合，并力西向，凉州军拿什么抵挡？
凉州军不想坐以待毙的话，必须想办法破局。
破局点也有，南方！
讲得更直白点，就是荆益，打下荆益，扩张势力，才能抗衡关东群雄。没办法，关东狠人实在多了点，也不缺血性，缺的只是足够大的施展空间，所以才会爆发内部淘汰赛。荆益则不同，两位州牧地盘很大，人口也很多，但在长年跟胡人厮杀、百战余生的凉州军眼中，纸面实力不代表真正实力，人多钱粮多却没战斗力，跟羊群有什么区别？可如果凉州军能够占据荆益，有钱有粮有人，以凉州尚武死战之风淬炼荆益之众，羊群变虎，何惧关东？
以凉州军当前形势，不可能同时对荆益开战。
荆州和益州如果只能选一个，选谁？
当然选益州！
荆州人口众多地大物博，荆襄九郡跨蹈汉南，四面可出，离中原也近，但荆州坏就坏在为天下枢纽，四面可出，反过来理解就是四面都可以进入，况且荆州离关东诸侯过近，袁术还蹲在荆北呢，群雄不会坐视凉州军南下，除非凉州军想提前与关东诸侯决战，否则很难对荆州大举用兵。
益州天府，物产富饶，昔日秦国横扫**，靠的绝不仅仅是秦军锐勇，单靠三秦之地的出产，如何支撑得起秦军独战天下？获得巴蜀的物产支持，为秦国东击诸国奠定了坚实的物质基础。今凉州军占据司隶对抗关东诸侯，大势与战国时的秦国何其相似，前朝成功模式历历在目，没理由不去效仿。而且益州位于西南一隅，群山阻绝，易守难攻，征伐时关东诸侯很难驰援，得手后把两条通道一封，益州天府就成了凉州军自留地，能源源不断地为凉州军提供钱粮物产，何乐而不为？
贾诩早在凉州军奔向长安时，就预见到现今的局面，他当时是凉州军，反复为凉州集团推演破局战略，得出的最佳方案就是挥师入巴蜀地。奇袭汉中，只要拿下汉中，益州北部门户洞开，主力部队直捣绵竹、成都一线，另派一部奇兵轻装疾进，抢占永安，锁死由荆州进入益州的通道，然后就可从容用兵，将益州北部精华区域收入囊中。
该战略最要紧的就是突然性，益州地形不利于正面推进，缺乏突然性，很容易打成旷日持久的消耗战，对现在的凉州军来说，打成消耗战就意味着失败，因为关东一定不会袖手旁观的，虽然不太可能入巴蜀作战，从其他方向踢凉州军屁股还是很容易的。要想实战打出突然性，就必须降低益州戒备心理，保持和气甚至友好是必须的。
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