第九十一章:人口论
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历数至今,大明建国初年时,人口不足6000万。但到崇祯年间时,人口却将达到一点二个亿。甚至,这也许还只是一个保守估计的数字。只不过碍于帝国管理能力,无法将所有黑户都统计上来。
显然,每每乱世,人口大降。但人口一降,乱世结束之后,便会迅速出现盛世。盛世之事人口达到巅峰,随后危机四伏,酝酿着乱世的苗头。
这看起来,仿佛真是一个治乱循环的魔咒。
回想着朱慈烺此前提及的这一点,又对照着历朝历代粮食产量的变化,李邦华目光闪亮着,显然有所领悟。
朱慈烺继续道:“也可以说,汉朝鼎时之事,人口最高为六千万人。超过了这个数字,便意味着,帝国的容纳到了极限,将走上末世。到了隋唐时,鼎盛人口为九千万。到大明时,初年便已经到了六千万,达到了汉时水平,至今,已然有一点二个亿,比起隋唐鼎盛之时还要高。对于大多数人而言,都意味着人丁旺盛,这是兴旺发达之气象。没错,从大多数时候来讲,都是如此。可任何事务都是一体两面的,这也同样意味着,这样所谓的兴旺发达背后,是危急,是祸乱。比如……大明,有这么多粮食可以喂得饱这一点二亿人口的肚子吗?”
大家看了看那个亩产的表,心思各异。
黄道周凝眉道:“按照这亩产统计之数,这历朝历代都是上涨的。而今灾祸已过,战乱已平。今年亦是比往年稍稍风调雨顺稍许,如此算,应是不成问题。”
“黄爱卿所言,挺起来是有些道理的。”朱慈烺笑道:“但大灾大祸之后,依旧能见到无数人活着,那不意味着这一场大灾大祸之中没有死过人。只不过,我们只能看到活人罢了。这,就是幸存者偏差。我们的眼睛,并不是每时每刻都能看到真相。如果我们的脑子不能够保持清醒,那么很多时候……我们,也一样会被自己的眼睛所欺骗。”
众人微微一阵默然。
李邦华缓缓颔首,道:“臣看来,这历朝历代非是只恰好有那么多人。比如这汉时的六千万,不是汉朝人生不起更多的人,而是……只能养的活这么多的人。将亩产与总量人口对比发现,这比率大致上都是一致的。也就是说,存在着一个帝国可以容纳人口的极限。汉朝是六千万人左右,隋唐是九千万人左右。”
众人听闻以后,议论之声顿时更加热切了。
汉唐盛世,这是无数人遍读史书之后的印象。每个中华儿女都会自豪与这一点,但如果有一天要说当今能比拟汉唐盛世,恐怕第一时间不是骄傲,而是不敢置信。
同样,如果汉唐时期的极限人口就是九千万,那么已经远超汉唐时期极限人口的大明,又将是怎样一个情况呢?
既然不敢相信自己能够超过汉唐盛世……
那么显然就是代表一点:帝国已经走上了末期,即将走向衰亡……
如果,当然只是如果,如果这个时空里没有朱慈烺的存在,没有那一连串力挽狂澜的大胜。
这大明,似乎真的就是一个末世气象呢。
……
“没错!”朱慈烺赞赏着点头,让屋内重新恢复了安静:“一个时期的社会总发展水平,是存在一个极限容纳概念的。但注意,这并不意味着,他就一定不会超过这样一个极限人口的概念。比如,按照朕这个理论,大明最佳的人口数量大约就是六千万人罢。但事实上呢?是两倍!这一点,朕可以阻拦吗?朝廷可以阻拦吗?不会,如果有人胆敢这么做,那么他得到的一定是上苍的处罚。这个世界既定的运行规律一定会给与一个深刻的反面教训。哪怕帝国真的只有这么多粮食可以喂饱这么多人,再多一张嘴都会饿死。但一定会出现更多的人生下来……”
屋内,寂静万分。<();
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