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第十三章、兵出子午

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后世即便只读过《三国演义》的人,可能不清楚傥骆道、褒斜道,甚至记不清散关故道,但一定不会忽视“子午谷”这个名字。

演义九十二回“赵子龙力斩五将诸葛亮智取三城”中说,诸葛亮议伐曹魏,会聚众将商议“魏延上帐献策曰:‘夏侯楙乃膏粱子弟,懦弱无谋。延愿得精兵五千,取路出褒中,循秦岭以东,当子午谷而投北,不过十日,可到长安。夏侯楙若闻某骤至,必然弃城望横门邸阁而走。某却从东方而来,丞相可大驱士马自斜谷而进。如此行之,可咸阳以西,一举可定也。’”

这就是后世褒贬不一的所谓“子午谷战略”,并非小说家编造,原事见于《三国志.魏延传》中裴疏所引《魏略》,其中魏延所献计策的具体细节略有不同

“闻夏侯楙少,主婿也,怯而无谋。今假延精兵五千,负粮五千,直从褒中出,循秦岭而东,当子午而北,不过十日可到长安。楙闻延奄至,必乘船逃走。长安中惟有御史、京兆太守耳,横门邸阁与散民之谷足周食也。比东方相合聚,尚二十许日,而公从斜谷来,必足以达。如此,则一举而咸阳以西可定矣。”

也就是说,魏延建议在诸葛亮兵出祁山的同时,由他率领五千精兵,身负必要口粮,通过子午谷奇袭关中。他判断长安城内无重将,夏侯楙不但不懂打仗,抑且胆怯,必然弃城而走。然后不管是否能够拿下长安,他魏延可以趁此混乱局面,在关中再周旋二十多天的时间。那么一个多月够长了,诸葛亮的主力必然已出祁山,跟他东西夹击,曹魏的关陇军团就有全军覆灭的危险。因此“则一举而咸阳以西可定矣”。

当时诸葛亮直接驳回了魏延的建议,“以为此悬危,不如安从坦道,可以平取陇右,十全必克而无虞”。他倒是也确实没有只走祁山一条道,而“扬声由斜谷道取郿,使赵云、邓芝为疑军,据箕谷”,以吸引和迷惑曹真所率的曹魏主力。然而赵云旋即为曹真击退。没能真正起到配合的效果,张郃又直接看破的诸葛亮所图,沿六盘山谷道西行,直取祁山侧面的要地街亭,最终导致一伐曹魏无功而返。

所以对于魏延那并没有正式实施的“子午谷战略”,后世众说纷纭,或以为真奇计也,惜乎武侯不用。或以为纯属异想天开,诸葛亮不肯听从非常正常。是勋本人在前一世。是比较倾向于魏延所谋的,关键点有三:

一,魏延是蜀汉宿将,又长年镇守汉中,对于敌我态势和地理状况的理解,不是后人纸上谈兵所可以比拟的。说白了。倘若兵出子午谷十死无生,他除非疯了,否则没道理自陷死地。有人还拿后来曹真多道南侵,子午谷一路一个月还没走完一半儿来反对魏延,问题全都忽略了前面“道逢霖雨”四个字魏延再傻。还不至于把俩月的路程给计算成十天。

二,诸葛亮初次北伐,时逢关陇空虚,曹魏专注南线东吴,对于蜀汉是等待其自生自灭,根本料想不到诸葛亮会大胆来攻。在此种前提下,突出奇兵很可能侥幸取胜再说了,长安只有夏侯楙,那又是什么值得担心的对手了?

三,从来军事行动没有必胜之策,冒险是难免的,尤其蜀汉以小博大,不冒险就无从获取最大的利益,无法彻底改变小大之势,成功的可能性非常渺茫。所以魏延之计虽然悬危,也不是完全不可以考虑,尤其他的目的只在于割断关中和虢洛的联系,以待诸葛亮上陇,并没有奢望仅靠这五千人就能取得完胜。

当然啦,以后事倒推,魏延的策略确实存在着一个难以弥补的漏洞,那就是:以诸葛亮的谨慎个性和和行军速度,一个多月也未必真能上陇,跟他东西对进……

关键就在于军事冒险是否必须,有没有一定的成功可能性。就如同后来邓艾偷渡阴平,其危险指数真不比“子午谷战略”来得低,可是他打赢了,于是千古传名。

基于以上理由,是勋会比同时代的谋臣武将更加关注子午谷方向,而且他认为蜀汉如今的局势比原本历史上诸葛亮北伐之时还要危险一则曹魏已定江东、交广,二则南中尚且不稳要是不敢冒险,他们就几乎没有翻盘的机会啦。而刘备的赌性又比诸葛亮强了不止一百倍……

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