第8节:2007:超级风险与机遇年
最新网址:m.ltxsdz.com
2007:超级风险与机遇年
世事无常,却逃不开“福祸相依”的基本规律。龙腾小说网ltxsba.com在2006年上证指数上涨了130%之后,股指不仅还掉了过去几年的欠账———经济持续高速成长,但股指每况愈下,而且已经开始透支未来。
需要警示的是,如果股指期货在2007年如期推出,这一年将是前所未见的超级风险与机遇年,请注意,这里使用的定义词是“超级风险与机遇”。意思是,它将是机遇和风险同样非常巨大的一年,有人会升上财富的天堂,获取与2006年同等甚至更高水平的暴利,但这部分人很少,可能占总股民数5%,最多10%;30%左右的人可能会略有盈利,他们是非常能沉住气,坚信“高抛低吸”原则,而绝不是“追涨杀跌”的人;60%的人很可能会严重亏损,甚至血本无归。
一言以蔽之,在目前的股市游戏规则不改变的前提下,股指期货若如期在2007年5、6月间推出,中小散户和基金投资者如果不能充分意识到不久将临的风险,他们大约2.5万亿的财富,将至少有5000亿元~10000亿元会被别人卷走,届时这一轮被财富神话吸引进股市的新股民将惨遭涂炭,他们中很多人含辛茹苦积累节省下来的养命钱很可能会被别人卷走30%,甚至50%。更容易让他们毒火攻心的是,在同期,有人甚至可以赚到100%,甚至200%的暴利。搞不好,他们中的很多人的精神乃至生活都会崩溃,一如那个已经疯癫多年的老人。
这其中,对投资者的教育,特别是对2007年股市的风险提示,就显得非常重要。如果他们在获得充分的提示信息后,仍然决定投资入市,就要对自己的决定和行为负责,风险和后果必须自担,也就不能再埋怨市场和政府了。而如果没有这种风险提示,一边倒唱多舆论在帮助“猎人”围猎造势后,“猎人”们蒙蔽散户投资者,日后新散户和基民成为待宰羔羊受到涂炭后,将会成为一种社会不稳定的因素。
这也是我无法逃避良知,必须撰写此书的原因。我们的报纸———《第一财经日报》尽管已经对此有了多次的提醒,但是,由于它的发行目前仅限于上海、北京、广州、深圳等几座大都市,这些警告和提示很难达到像我的故乡安徽淮北这样的小城市。尽管我知道,写书是一种笨办法,但它毕竟可以达到内地的二三线城市,可以让散户投资者捧在手中琢磨。尽管我知道,即使这本书出版了,很多人看到了,他们也未必买,更未必信,但我已经尽到责任,也就可以坦荡安心了!
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