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第21节:作者股市预测与印证(1)

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作者股市预测与印证

最新预测

2007:中国A股大幅跌荡,下半年再创新高

2006年中国A股的上涨幅度几乎超过了所有人的估计,而2007年中国A股的震荡幅度也会超过大多数人的估计,会呈现一个V字形的曲线。龙腾小说ltxsba.com

预期2007年的中国A股走势,首先要明确一个前提,那就是人民币升值幅度,假定我们《2007中国与世界十大经济预言》第三项的预测正确———2007年中国人民币兑美元升值3%以内,不扩大汇率浮动区间,同时第一项也是正确的———GDP与2006年基本持平,那么在2007年,对国内A股影响最大的战术因素是股指期货。

在股指期货正式推出前,国内A股将上演高位大幅震荡行情(2007年1月4日~2月6日,上证指数最多下跌15.1%;2月6日至2月15日,上证指数再上涨15.1%。已初步得到印证)。在股指期货具体推出时间确定之后,再拉一个上涨;股指期货推出后,指数下跌,下跌幅度将超过多数人的想象;随后再走一个先快升再慢涨的牛市行情,再创年度新高,上证指数有望攀升至3000。

之所以将走出这种V字行情,是因为围绕股指期货的推出,这将是主力机构获取投机利润最大化的操作策略。如果证券监管部门采取有力措施,可以使得震荡幅度降低,但难以改变这种V字形走势。

如果人民币升值幅度达到5%或更多,甚至人民币汇率浮动区间扩大,资本项目开放更进一步。那么,上证指数将上涨到3500甚至更高,但2008年会大幅下跌。

2005年预测与印证

2006年度中国A股指数将小幅上涨

时间:2005年12月30日

背景:2005年底,《第一财经日报》推出了2006年度“中国与世界十大经济预言”,其中第八项为中国A股项。

核心话语:上证G股指数(2006年)肯定大幅上涨。倘若以2005年底G股股票样本不变为参照,到2006年底,这些股票平均价格上涨幅度有限。

现实印证:从2006年全面,上证综合指数上涨130%,但若以2005年底G股股票样本不变为参照,其2006年度股票价格的算术平均数上涨81.43%。

预测评价:方向正确,上涨幅度预测较为保守。反思原因,一是作为传媒人预测的谨慎性;二、对新兴市场股市的牛市特征把握不足;三、股指期货的推出时间晚于我们预期。

原文照登:

2006年上证G股指数将大涨,上证指数将小涨

A股市场将会加速股改,春节后,先恢复融资后恢复全流通IPO并不出人意料。由于不断有新G股加入上证G股指数,上证G股指数肯定大幅上涨。倘若以2005年底G股股票样本不变为参照,到2006年底,这些股票平均价格上涨幅度有限。原因在于,新G股已具投资价值,但也同样存在减持压力。由于存在新G股上市压力,能否吸引更多场外资金入市是关键,这就要看新G股上市定价和交易制度是否更市场化,更能赢得社会公信。

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