第21节:作者股市预测与印证(1)
最新网址:m.ltxsdz.com
万科股价未来三年上涨100%~200%不成问题
时间:2005年9月12日
背景:当时本人所分管的财经新闻中心开办“第一理财”周刊,作为此周刊的第一篇头条文章,本人指导记者李晶撰写此文,并提供了新闻人物的原形和故事,定下万科未来上涨幅度的基调。
核心话语:未来三年,在大市触底反弹的背景下,以万科这样的个股潜力,上涨100%200%完全可能。
现实印证:从原文刊发日到2006年最后一个交易日收盘,万科A股股价上涨434%。
预测评价:方向正确,此预测在当时是对股改后市场最大胆的预测之一,但仍不及其现实上涨幅度。
原文照登:
亿万富翁急于卖楼套现只因牛市将临拟狂买万科
编者按:随着上证指数从1000左右反弹,投资界出现了一种“到股市抢钱”的冲动,对这种情绪,我们提醒尚需冷静。我们虽然看好股权分置改革成功以后的股市大趋势,但目前股市仍有潜在投资风险。一则,从短线来看,由于目前股改政策对大股东和保荐人有利,他们客观上拥有股改信息优势,中小股民不宜轻易跟进;二则,不少上市公司都或多或少存在着未来减持压力,需要判断清楚;三则,一些历史上的庄股和严重背离基本面的股票,持股人很可能利用股改机会出逃。相对而言,我们觉得罗智宇的投资理财观就相当理性:一、选股时小心地规避股改概念的陷阱;二、遵循价值投资的原则,研究公司基本面和管理团队;三、有效规避庄股和垃圾股。这样才是后股权分置时代应有的健康投资观。
眼看着上证指数从1000左右逐次反弹,深圳某地产大厦的老板罗智宇(化名)很着急,这位曾经在二级市场“翻手为云,覆手为雨”的亿万富豪本能地意识到,一个非常难得的长线牛市的投资机会就在眼前,他将何去何从?
逃股市却被地产套牢
罗智宇对于投资有一种超乎寻常的直觉和果断,这使他在过去四年多的大熊市中躲过一劫。2001年的二级市场,钱已经完全不是钱了,一两个亿下去往往只能溅起个小水花,早些年几百万元能够达到的效果,现在可能10个亿才能做到。这时他做出了一个日后非常得意的决定:洗脚上岸。那时,深圳像他这样有三五亿身价的大有人在,比他牛的也不乏其人,如大鹏证券的老板徐卫国。然而在上证指数从2245到1000的超跌中,很多人输了个精光,徐卫国的大鹏证券式的崩溃只是他们命运的冰山一角。
来了一个180度的大转弯,精明的罗智宇潜进了他认为最安全的房地产,他以自己在深圳积累起来的人脉,拿到了一块上佳的地块,盖起了写字楼,当起了楼主。
谁知祸福相依,当年让他得意之举现在却让他备受束缚。因为他将几乎所有的身家———近4亿元的现金都投进这幢大楼中,大楼才刚刚装修完毕,却一头撞上了宏观调控。他的现金被冻结了!
想变万科的同行为股东
急于入股市的罗智宇已选择好了目标个股,为了印证自己的看法,他还是把在某券商研究所的一位朋友找来,这位研究员说:“眼光不错,万科的确是个值得下工夫的目标。”
他们认同的利好是:一、公司经营基本面有潜力。万科是行业龙头,业绩最好,以王石为首的公司管理层口碑良好,公司历史上从未传出过与“庄家”勾结的丑闻。市盈率很低,现在8倍多,远低于香港同类公司约13倍的市盈率。二、公司股改基本面风险很低。目前万科非流通股仅有104517多万股,只占总股本的30%出头,第一大股东华润股份的持股比例也只有12.89%。基本可以打消股改后非流通股股东的减持风险。
但对房地产业风险认定上,双方发生了分歧。这位朋友认为,房地产业仍有相当风险。但罗智宇却相信自己的判断。这种宏观调控考验的是现金流,看谁能挺过去,对于中小开发商是噩耗,对万科这样现金流良好的公司是洗牌机遇,将意味着成为整合者和拥有更大的市场份额。
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