第22节:作者股市预测与印证(2)
最新网址:m.ltxsdz.com
掂量下来,罗智宇相信,未来3年,在大市触底反弹的背景下,以万科这样的个股潜力,上涨100%200%完全可能。龙腾小说网ltxsba.com
一旦认定这一,罗智宇决定以最快速度将地产变现。
权衡于退出成本和抢进收益间
实际操作起来,罗智宇才发现变现并不容易。
一家个人投资理财网的CEO洪曦对《第一财经日报》表示,目前像罗智宇这样想退出房地产市场的中小地产老板有很多,套现的渠道也主要有三条:
其一,是原来常规的方法,即抵押给银行,但由于目前银行的口非常紧,宏观调控以后房地产行业已经被列为高风险行业,对于他们来说主要能做的不是继续抵押而是清理,这条道基本已被封死。内地银行抵押贷款无门,罗智宇曾试图押给香港特区的银行,但经过咨询发现,现在存在法律障碍。
其二,无外乎就是转卖给私募基金了。比如类似温州炒房团的资产收购方,“他们现在还在不断地进行收房,目的就是要在低谷的时候来囤积房源和楼盘,按照他们各自资金量的不同,预期也不同,小资金博的是楼市短期就能走出低谷,有的甚至就是看今年10月份;而有的是博半年到一年,而有些大的资金则可以等1~2年。但他们对折现率非常苛刻,住宅难以超过五成,而写字楼也很难超过七成。”洪曦说。
另外一个途径就是委托房产信托公司发行份额房产信托计划,再卖给投资者,实际这也是一种融资的方式,但对于罗智宇这样不知名的小地产商来说,很难拿到一个好的折现率,还要付给信托公司一笔委托费用,不仅“赔了夫人又折兵”,更重要的是时间周期太长,而机遇稍纵即逝。
不久前,罗智宇找到了两家温州炒房团,开始了艰难的讨价还价。在记者发稿前,打电话向他询问结果,他神秘地一笑,说:“你自己猜猜看。”是啊,在这种退出成本和抢进收益之间,你会怎么选择呢?
新全流通股IPO首发宜在2006年6月
时间:2005年6月3日
背景:当时股权分置改革试进行了第一轮,第二轮正在进行,试暴露了不少问题,各方人士纠缠于战术细节,市场信心再降,股指再度下挫至新低1016。此刻,笔者为《第一财经日报》撰写“成功解决股权分置问题”系列社评的第四篇,认为,股改无须太在意具体细节,只要明确最核心的预期,各方就会形成共同的改革推动力。后来,该建议被中国证监会采纳,尚福林主席对《第一财经日报》在股改中的突出作用做了书面致谢。
核心话语:如果尽快明确改革中两个最关键的预期,一是明确解决现行A股股权分置改革的“全封闭”环境;二是明确“新老划断”时间,即新的全流通股上市的时间,则A股股市将开启良性循环,股指将很快会触底反转。
现实验证:此后的第三天,上证指数下探至最低998,后一路反弹,2006年6月5日,股改后第一支新的全流通股中工国际IPO上市,与预期的一年时间误差仅有两天。
预测评价:预期和分析被采纳为改革政策,献策与决策良性互动,决策当局英明果断,为股改成功做出最重要的推动。
原文照登:
新老划断时间宜在一年之内
———四评成功解决股权分置问题
昨日收盘,上证指数再创8年新低———1016.06。各方人士更加迫切期望扭转股市不断下挫的局面。
现状并未出乎我们意料。5月16日,本报社评写道:如果尽快明确改革中两个最关键的预期,一是明确解决现行A股股权分置改革的“全封闭”环境;二是明确“新老划断”时间,即新的全流通股上市的时间,则A股股市将开启良性循环,股指将很快会触底反转。与此相反,如果这两个关键预期久拖不决,股市将会恶性循环。此后14个交易日中,这两个预期尚未能明确,上证指数至昨日收盘已跌去87.93。
在越来越多市场参与者对股市不太乐观的今天,我们却对未来越来越有信心。我们深信,整个市场只是在期待“新老划断”时间的确定———那将是扭转股市乾坤的“胜负手”。
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