第26节:作者股市预测与印证(6)
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现实印证:从此文刊到2006年12月29日,中国A股股市规模已经增大2.33倍,上证综合指数和深证综合指数已经分别上涨了93.88%和57.30%。更多小说ltxsba.com
预测评价:方向正确,预测大胆而富有想象力。
原文照登:
股市竞争力:中国的阿喀琉斯之踵
随着个人合法财产境外转移大门渐开,中国股市行将直面全球竞争,它将演变成中国金融、经济的生死玄关。
对于已经非常脆弱的中国内地股市而言,世界丛林的凶悍虎狼已近了,又一重危机将临。
“我们不仅希望帮助中国企业海外上市,未来更希望帮助中国公民投资海外股市”,11月20日上午,在中国内地A股暂停新股发行近3个月之时,中国公司再掀海外上市潮之际,李小加———摩根大通中国区主席及行政总裁这样憧憬,其实他的美梦似乎已经不远,而对于中国股市套牢族来说,那却可能是一场噩梦。
11月16日,中国人民银行宣布,个人合法财产可转移海外,包括移民财产转移、海外公民的中国继承财产的转移。几乎同时,央行宣布放宽中国公民出国留学携汇额度。这意味着中国人海外投资的门已经打开半扇。按此规定,中国富豪将财产给子女继承,将其移民海外,那些财产就可合法外移。远隔重洋的纽交所、NASDAQ、法兰克福、伦敦乃至越南的股市实际上离中国人前所未有之近。
央行的决策无可厚非。热钱凶猛涌入,为捍卫汇率稳定,央行被迫发放大量人民币基础货币,这给通胀造成了极大压力。为了对冲,央行不得不鼓励国内资本向外流动。而随着压力增大,不排除央行进一步放开资金外流的可能。
“城门失火,殃及池鱼”。相信央行没有这样的主观意图,但客观上央行新规有可能对中国内地脆弱的股市进一步釜底抽薪。换言之,不仅从争夺上市资源,更从争夺投资者方面,中国股市将被迫面对全球股市的竞争。
对于大多数中国股民而言,海外那些主要股市再差,也不至于像中国内地股市那样,股民10年总收益为负、其上市公司EVA(经济增加值)像2003年那样为负。所以,一旦内地投资者意识到这一,借助这些合法渠道投资海外将渐成气候。
或许证监会和国内券商因此会埋怨央行,但央行要回答这个问题却很容易。
热钱涌入,先要找栖身之所。一般来说,股市是当然的受益者,会水涨船高,但海外热钱投资者对内地股市视若无物,那就怪不得别人了。更何况热钱一头就扎进了房地产等行业,导致中国房地产价格不断攀升,间接增加了中国的劳动力成本,降低了中国经济竞争力,而且直接拉高了CPI,导致央行宏观调控的效果事倍功半。此中实有股市无能之弊。
对股市最恨铁不成钢的,想来应当是银监会和银行业。当今中国的生死命脉是国有商业银行的再造,困难的是银行资本如何充足。指望银行自己赚钱解决会陷入“先有蛋还是先有鸡”的怪圈;增发货币的秘籍,在热钱如此汹涌而至的情况下几乎毫无用处,唯一可以指望的只有股市。海外上市,不仅要将未来的盈利分红权拱手让人,且要与海外战略投资者分羹,还要让投行拿走5%10%的融资。一头中国的“银牛”被人家剥三层皮,银行能怨谁,只能怪自己的股市是“扶不起的阿斗”。
平心而论,中国股市沦落到今日的地步,实非证监会一身之责,归根结底是股市最初种下这种因———为国有企业改革融资,也只能结今日果———很少社会公众投资者愿来交易。而这条道路走下去只能有死胡同。眼看着政策利好救市效应不断递减,国有券商和基金日益成为市场主力,即使有国有保险、银行等资金的进入,股市仍演变为国有机构之间的博弈,甚至是国有机构与国家间的博弈。
由于国有体制下“道德风险”难以根治,“老鼠仓”漏斗无法堵塞,国有机构入市的资金可能会越滚越少。在这种情况下,即使国有银行在内地股市上市,也只能是国有机构间的内部交换,国家仍然承担无限风险。
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