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第27节:作者股市预测与印证(7)

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最新网址:m.ltxsdz.com

事已至此,相互埋怨毫无意义。更多小说ltxsba.com在银行、利率汇率和股市三者越来越纠缠不清时,就越需要超凡的智慧与魄力,快刀斩乱麻,否则这个“三角畸恋”会越纠缠越堕落。正像国务院发展研究中心金融所所长夏斌所说:股市并不是像有些人所说,再坏也不会坏到哪里去,要从货币传导机制的逼迫性,要从银行改革资本金来源的紧迫性,要从社会安全网的必需性来看待。

逻辑已经非常清晰。中国经济的生死玄关是银行,而银行的生死玄关在股市。股市能否复活,实际上已经成为扭转中国经济乾坤的关键战役。

股市能否真正复活,必定决定于大量社会公众资本的涌入。因中国国民经济增长强劲。因中国居民储蓄率很高,因国际剩余资本数以10万亿美元计,只要股市令中外公众信赖,未来10年中国股市规模增大510倍,指数提高35倍,成为世界上规模最大,股指成长最快,发展速度最快的股市之一绝不是天方夜谭。倘能如此,中国的企业、银行、社保和货币政策都会受益匪浅,中国的改革由此将赢得巨大空间。

重塑公信必以制度为保障。制度奠基不外三足鼎立:一是必须同股同权,同股同酬,解决股权分置问题;二是解决上市公司效率低下问题,还上市公司主体责权,建立经营层的有效激励机制;三是严厉惩处大股东侵吞中小股民的利益的行为。

最艰巨的挑战当数股权分置。能否找到出路,要看各参与方是依赖中国古老的“麻将牌桌”———幕后交易,轮流坐庄,推倒重来的路径,还是把股市变成一个现代商业的“谈判方桌”———公开博弈,市场妥协,制度锁定,而后同台竞技,各显其能,实现理性共赢。

由此来看,中国证监会副主席屠光绍20日的讲话很有味道,在谈到股权分置问题时,他说,要以市场化的手段积极稳妥地解决;要保护公众股东的利益,标本兼治、远近结合、内外并重。这番话着实耐人寻味。

中国股市就这样在判决中国经济的命运,要么它成为阿喀琉斯之踵———巨神最脆弱的脚后跟;要么就成为达摩克利斯之剑———中国以它披荆斩棘,冲破转型中的道道险关。

在中国股市为“三月不知肉味”而尴尬之时,指望中国经济不断冲上世界竞争力高峰是不现实的。那我们只有面对现实的逼迫性,再造中国股市的竞争力。

2003年股市预测与印证

逃避股改,股市将“多败俱伤”,股指也将每况愈下

时间:2003年11月17日

背景:当时,我作为《21世纪经济报道》分管财富版块的编委,为了能够解决中国股市的流通股和非流通股的股权割裂的制度性缺陷,多次献计献策,多次对市场参与者发出警告,希望各利益方能够遏制自己的贪婪,回归理性的妥协,找到共同的出路,但现实令我非常失望。于是,写了本人评论生涯中最情绪化的文章,在此请读者允许我就因当时的激动而给一些人士带来的不快表示歉意。

预测话语:一次次不断警告,却一次次无人在乎,我们就只能这样眼睁睁看着中国的庄家们一步步逼近深渊,我们大声呼喊,他们充耳不闻,乃至想方设法堵我们的口,掩耳盗铃,自取灭亡;我们就这样眼睁睁地看着中国股市危机一日趋深重、积重难返,一次次丧失改革良机,使改革可以腾挪的空间日益萎缩。

现实印证:那时,上证综合指数为1328.10,到2005年4月29日股改试开始时,该指数已经下降到1159.15,降幅为12.91%。

预测评价:方向正确,但评论情绪化,气度和胸怀仍须历练,需要检讨。

原文照登:

1311:是集体性“愚蠢”,还是国民性宿命

当啤酒花黄色幻泡迸去,股市上证指数终于跌破1311大关(此1311已非彼1311,而是“注了水的猪”),笔者只能仰天长叹,悲痛莫名。

仰天长叹,不知是该痛斥“本土庄家派”集体性愚蠢,还是哀伤股市参与者的“国民性宿命”,难道他们真的要在贪婪和投机的驱使下,一意孤行,导致最后的“多败俱伤,同归于尽”的宿命?

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