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第44节:疯炒工行———热钱预演2008对华“货币战争”(1)

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疯炒工行———热钱预演2008对华“货币战争”

2006年末,2007年初,已经祥和了近十年的亚洲金融市场,突然发生了两起触目惊心的事件。更多小说ltxsba.com先是泰国在与国际热钱“交战”中一日落败,二是中国工商银行(以下简称工行)A股股价狂涨暴跌。

2006年12月18~19日,泰国爆发“一日货币战争”———18日晚,泰国央行下令,从19日起,实施不支付利息的外汇存款准备金的系列举措,以增加热钱进入成本,缓解泰铢升值压力,预防热钱大进之后再大出之时的金融悲剧重演。热钱当即犀利反击,19日泰国证交所指数(SET)暴跌14.84%,市值蒸发230亿美元,泰国央行当日宣布取消上述管制措施。

在此前后,从2006年10月30日到2007年1月4日,工行A股股价从3.25元被疯狂拉升到6.79元,上涨108.92%,接下来至2007年2月6日底的4.57元,又大跌32.7%。同期,上证指数分别上涨65.46%和下跌15.34%。

前者的短兵相接,使得亚洲乃至世界,重忆起十年前的噩梦,两轮从泰国开始倒下的多米诺骨牌,使亚洲在金融危机中损失惨重。人们不禁要问,这是否是新一轮亚洲金融危机的信号?

过去数年中,亚洲经济之所以能摆脱当年危机阴影,重上发展轨道,关键在于,昔日的中国因金融基本封闭未受直接冲击,亚洲元气未伤。其后,中国抓住了“世界工厂”的机遇,带动了东亚的投资和贸易,增强了区域内的经贸活力和投资信心。可以说,“世界工厂”不仅是当今中国竞争力之本,也是亚洲经济活力之源。

但现在工行股价的狂涨暴跌难免引起世人更大忧虑:假如更加强大的热钱卷土重来,中国能否依然安然无恙,成为亚洲的“避风港”?

十年来,中国的金融围城大半已不在,尤其是过去两年中,中国的金融改革全面推进,与国际金融一体化加速,国际金融市场已直接或间接(通过香港)地同内地银行、股市、汇市建立了全面连锁反应机制。

尽管目前中国仍然有部分的资本项目没有开放,人民币汇率实施0.3%的浮动汇率区间制度,但是国际热钱仍然可以伪装成贸易顺差或外商直接投资,乃至通过地下钱庄“偷渡”中国,它们与国内同类属性的短期投机资本相结合,还是足以演绎在46个交易日中,让工行这样的超级大盘股翻倍上涨,在24个交易日中,大跌近1/3的疯狂局面。尽管此次狂涨大跌背后有投机股指期货的因素,但不可否认的是,人民币升值是其更大的背景。

所幸的是,一、目前,热钱正觊觎人民币汇率更大幅度的升值,仍处于先锋潜入蓄势阶段;二、关于人民币升值多大幅度的论战正在进行中,更多的热钱主力仍在境外观望;三、热钱更希望得到中国资本项目可兑换以及更大汇率浮动区间的政策预期,以便在人民币更大幅度升值背景下,加速放大中国资产泡沫,并在泡沫破灭前,能够迅速地变现撤退。如果他们得逞,到那时,这次工行股价近1/3的下跌幅度将会是小巫见大巫。

对于热钱来说,较为理想的是,在2007年中国人民币升值10%以上之后,2008年人民币汇率日浮动区间扩大至2%甚至更高,并且中国央行承诺不干预外汇市场。这从2007年1月31日美国财长鲍尔森在国会听证时定下的目标可窥一斑。他称,在其两年任期内,“让人民币形成基于市场经济规则、由市场竞争决定的、自行浮动与定价的机制”。

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