第45节：疯炒工行———热钱预演2008对华“货币战争”(2)
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倘若如此，热钱对中国发动“货币战争”的条件将全部具备：一、假如人民币在2005年实际升值超过5%，甚至10%以上，年底人民币资产价格泡沫将大大高于2007年初的高峰水平，进入一戳就破的巨大泡沫阶段；二、倘若资本项目放开，人民币汇率浮动日区间扩大到2%，且中国央行承诺不干预市场，则热钱撤退通道基本打通；三、中国制造的竞争力将随着人民币大幅升值而受到严重损害，企业盈利水平将大幅降低，GDP增速将明显降低，其后果将在2008年开始显现；四、目前已经有人开始制造“后奥运衰退”的舆论，并会愈演愈烈。龙腾小说网ltxsba.com
以华尔街为中心的热钱发动一场针对亚洲，针对中国的“货币战争”，在美国某些人士眼中，符合美国的“单极世界”利益。以摧毁中国崛起为目标，“货币战争”将是一种最有效率的方式：第一，它非常隐蔽———没有漫天硝烟，没有轰鸣炮声，在花言巧语的吹捧之中，在目标国经济繁荣泡沫的掩护之下，静悄悄地“请君入瓮”；第二，它投入最少———只需要投入影响舆论和收买代言人的少量费用；第三，它收益极高———直接收益将以千亿美元计，间接收益无法估算；第四，它速度最快———人民币从最高峰大幅下跌之后，可能只要一个月就会让中国经济一片狼藉，难以翻身；第五，它道义成本最低———连索罗斯都拒绝为亚洲金融危机道歉。
所以，“货币战争”对于中国崛起的潜在危险性，已经超过“台海隐患”对于中国崛起的威胁，毕竟后者的政治、经济和社会成本要巨大得多，尤其是在美国深陷中东困局之际，策动台海危机不符合美国的利益。
有人会担心，中国坚持“主动性，可控性和渐进性”的人民币汇率的国策，比如每年以3%左右的速度升值人民币，会引发美国的不满，甚至制裁，从而导致一场美国大幅提高中国进口关税的“贸易战”，到那时，中国同样不得不被动地大幅升值人民币。
这一担忧是没有必要的。原因在于：一、在中美经贸关系的现状下，如前文所析，美国获得了比中国大得多的好处，贸易战只能对美国经济造成更大损伤，甚至使美国最近一度缓和的金融隐患迅速爆发；二、如果真的发生了贸易战，裁决权在WTO手中，中国没有任何理由败诉；三、如果美国强制大幅提高中国商品关税，鉴于美国此类决策程序复杂，时间较长，中国可用更快的决策效率先大幅提高出口关税来先行反击。如此一来，美国的“中国人民币低估导致中国制造价格低估”的“罪名”就难以成立———既然你指责中国，要征税抬价，我们主动先征了，抬高了出口价格，你还有什么话说？！
退一步说，如果美国非要把中国逼到绝路上去，中国被迫绝地反击，只好使用手中的重型武器———高达万亿美元的外汇储备，只要中国将其中巨额美元资产，比如美国国债抛出一小部分，在投资者争先恐后的避险效应下，足以引发美元大幅贬值的危机，并导致美国金融市场的崩溃。诚然，这是一种两败俱伤的绝招，但两败俱伤总比中国完败美国完胜要好———至少我们还可以比一比谁更输不起，看谁恢复得更快。
当代中国执政者历来有一个原则———“人不犯我，我不犯人；人若犯我，我必犯人”，以这种一以贯之的理性与魄力，兼且更加深刻洞察国际经济和金融的国家博弈本质，笔者深信，这会带领中国渡过与国际经济，特别是金融一体化接轨的最凶险阶段，以平衡开放为契机，全面推进中国的金融改革和社会进步，并最终领导中华民族实现伟大的复兴。
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