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第49节:历年预测与印证(1)

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历年预测与印证

2006年人民币兑美元最可能升值3左右

时间:2005年12月30日

背景:对于2006年的人民币兑美元的升值幅度,其实悬念并不大,因为当新的人民币汇率机制形成后,在短期内不太可能做出大的调整。龙腾小说ltxsba.com在这种新机制下,我们认为,2006年中国的贸易顺差额不太可能减少(实际增长有较大增长),美元的利率可能高于人民币利率3%左右,人民币升值3%左右不会给热钱造成套利空间,故此我们做出了这一判断。

核心话语:中国央行近来多次强调,人民币兑美元不会再进行一次性重估。与此同时,人民币兑美元的大幅升值,将会加大美国目前的通胀压力,甚至引发其房地产和信用消费泡沫的破灭,这也是布什政府所不愿看到的。同时,中国的出口总额不会降低多少,贸易顺差即便达不到2005年的水平,也下降有限,这使得人民币有继续小幅上涨的压力。

现实印证:2006年12月20日,人民币汇率市场最后一个交易日,人民币兑美元价格比年初上升3.2%。

预测评价:方向正确,幅度基本吻合。

原文照登:

2006年人民币兑美元最有可能小幅升值3%左右

人民币兑美元小幅升值

贬值概率10%升值3%以内概率30%

升值3%~5%概率40%升值5%以上概率20%

中国央行近来多次强调,人民币兑美元不会再进行一次性重估。与此同时,人民币兑美元的大幅升值,将会加大美国目前的通胀压力,甚至会引发其房地产和信用消费泡沫的破灭,这也是布什政府所不愿看到的。

从资本项目流动看,随着7月21日人民币汇改,该方案令热钱无机可乘,国际投机资本在过去3年中屡博人民币升值未能得手后,开始退潮,从2004年12月的流入约220亿美元下降到2005年11月的流出约59亿美元。尽管不排除2006年人民币兑美元浮动区间的有限扩大,但那也难以成为热钱牟取暴利的缺口。

从贸易项目看,由于2006年中国GDP增速可能较上一年度下滑,扩大内需的举措一时难解近渴,尽管单位出口商品价格比2005年或有下降,但出口总额不会降低多少,贸易顺差即便达不到2005年的水平,也下降有限,这使得人民币有继续小幅上涨的压力。

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