第49节:历年预测与印证(1)
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新加坡汇率模式:中国的上佳选择
时间:2005年6月22日
背景:2005年5月,鉴于美国国会和美国总统布什均已对中国人民币汇率政策表态,希望中国人民币升值,我们认为人民币汇率改革已在所难免,但问题是,怎样的新汇率制度是最符合中国利益,同时对美国和世界也是最有利的呢?为此,我们进行了深入的研讨,其中的根本思路是———怎样能够最有效遏制热钱投机的办法就是最好选择。而一次性小幅升值,再加上微幅浮动区间使得人民币可以利用市场机制连续微幅地上涨,每年上涨3%左右会是让热钱最难受的———通过时间来锁定热钱的成本至少在3%,而人民币仅升值3%的话,那就完全无利可图。这一模式在国际上被称为类新加坡汇率模式,因此,我们专门邀请了特约评论员那复祺先生写了这篇文章。
核心话语:“在此种模式中,投机者根本就不知道何处是汇率目标的上限以及下限。由于上、下限不得而知,并且央行会将汇率保持在一定的幅度内,虽然不是每时每刻,但至少平均而言是这样的,因此市场就永远不会真正知道汇率是否触及了上限或下限。”“这将导致很少的投机商来对货币进行投机,而且如果投机商真的来了,新加坡模式也将很容易对付那些投机行为。”
现实印证:此后的第29天,7月21日,人民币汇改方案揭晓,除了一次性升值2.1%之外,新加坡汇率模式被选择为中国新的人民币基本汇率制度。
预测评价:中国央行的现实选择与我们的事先判断基本吻合。
原文照登:
新加坡汇率模式:中国的上佳选择
本周一发生了这样一件事情:有新闻媒体报道,中国正在着手进行研究,如果人民币汇率形成机制发生了改变,中国是否能够采用新加坡的汇率模式来管理人民币汇率。
让我们先来了解一下新加坡的这项政策,随后更重要的是来讨论一下这种模式是否最适合中国。
新加坡模式
新加坡中央银行又称新加坡金融管理局(MAS),他们把新加坡元盯住一篮子货币。由于MAS控制着新加坡元的供给,从而使得其汇率保持在一定的幅度内。MAS并不对外宣布这一篮子货币的构成,而金融市场的参与者最后才可以摸索到汇率的上限和下限。
为了使新加坡的出口能够在国际贸易市场上保持竞争力,MAS会调整篮子里的货币。从这个意义上来看,新加坡元盯住的是一篮子货币。
有专家认为,让人民币盯住一篮子货币将是中国的最佳选择。
我同意这种观。事实上,一年前我在中国的学术界中就发表过类似的观。而现在,我的观也日渐清晰。
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